October Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Democrats Hold A 4-Point Lead In Midterms Horserace, With Trump Approval Dropping To 39%

ECONOMY 28.10.2026

64% OF VOTERS SAY THE ECONOMY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK, A 7-PT. INCREASE FROM SEPTEMBER, WITH 3 IN 5 VOTERS HOLDING TRUMP RESPONSIBLE

REPUBLICAN PARTY APPROVAL RATING SINKS TO FIVE-YEAR LOW AT 41% WHILE DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL DECLINES TO 45%

69% OF VOTERS SAY PARTIES SHOULD WAIT THEIR TURN TO APPOINT JUDGES INSTEAD OF PACKING THE SUPREME COURT

48% OF 18-24 Y.O. VOTERS HAVE USED AN AI CHATBOT FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE MIDTERMS

69% OF VOTERS SAY THE PROTESTS IN FRANCE HAVE BECOME VIOLENT AND THREE-QUARTERS FORESEE A SIMILAR FATE FOR AMERICA

48% OF VOTERS, A PLURALITY, SAY TRUMP'S HANDLING OF THE IRAN CONFLICT MAKES THEM MORE LIKELY TO VOTE DEMOCRAT IN THE UPCOMING MIDTERMS

61% OF VOTERS OPPOSE U.S. BUYING OIL AND DIESEL FUEL FROM RUSSIA WHILE THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE CONTINUES, BUT 54% SUPPORT TRUMP'S DEAL TO LIFT DIESEL SANCTIONS

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NEW YORK CITY, NY AND CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / October 28, 2026 / Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 39%, a three-point drop from last month. His job approval is highest on immigration (44%) and fighting crime in America's cities (44%), and lowest on inflation (33%), tariffs and trade policy (34%), and the economy (34%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the midterms horserace, key ballot issues, cost of living, SCOTUS, the use of AI in elections, DOJ investigations, European protests, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Download the key results here.

"One week before the midterms elections and voters are feeling pessimistic about the economy and inflation," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "A small majority believe Democrats can do a better job and disapprove of Trump's tariffs and foreign policy."

DEMOCRATS HOLD 4-PT. EDGE IN MIDTERMS HORSERACE

The midterms horserace is split 52-48 among general voters, with Democrats holding a 4-pt. lead over likely midterm voters and 56% of Independents leaning Democrat.

78% of voters say they will definitely or probably vote in the upcoming midterm elections (+4).

38% of voters planning to vote for Republicans, a plurality, say Trump is not a factor in their decision. 36% say their vote is because of their support for Trump, and 19% say they are voting for the GOP despite Trump.

59% of voters say their midterms vote is decided (+9), while 23% say they are leaning toward certain candidates but could still change their mind. 12% of voters remain undecided, including 19% of Independents.

37% of voters say they expect to vote only for Democratic candidates, while 32% say the same about Republican candidates.

16% of voters say they are planning to split their vote. Among those considering splitting their vote or unsure, voters tend to be white, female, Independent, moderate or conservative, and less affluent voters.

39% of GOP and Independent voters, a plurality, say Trump's endorsement makes them more likely to back a Republican candidate, including 56% of GOP voters.

87% say this midterm election is important to them (+4), with 69% of likely midterm voters saying it is extremely important.

MOST VOTERS BELIEVE MIDTERMS WILL BE CONDUCTED FAIRLY

56% of voters say Democrats winning at least one chamber would be a better outcome for the country.

59% of voters say they trust the political polls to accurately reflect what voters think.

70% of voters say they are confident the midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately.

55% of voters say most of the candidates and political parties will accept the results of the midterms, even if they lose.

54% of voters believe Trump will challenge the results of the midterms if Republicans lose.

PESSIMISM RISES DUE TO CONCERNS ON THE ECONOMY

59% of voters say the country is on the wrong track (+4 pts., Sept. 2026; +7, Aug. 2026).

64% of voters say the economy is on the wrong track (+7 pts., Sept. 2026). 57% say the economy is weak (+5).

The Republican Party approval rating is at 41% (-5), a five-year low, while the Democratic Party approval rating is at 45% (-4). Congressional approval is at 32%.

Inflation remains the top personal concern for voters (+7).

MOST TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT BUT VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF TARIFFS

11 out of 14 key Trump policy positions continue to see majority support. His most popular policies are lowering prescription drug prices (84% support), easing fuel taxes (77%), and deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (76%).

Trump's least popular policy positions include placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries (40%), giving immigration officers the power to deny green cards (44%), and eliminating mail-in voting (45%).

58% of voters believe the Trump administration and its tariffs are responsible for inflation over the last few years (Republicans: 39%; Democrats: 73%; Independents: 63%).

60% of voters say the current state of the economy is due to Trump policies. 54% say today's economy is worse than it was under Biden.

A SMALL MAJORITY OF VOTERS TRUST DEMOCRATS TO LOWER THE COST OF LIVING

53% of voters trust Democrats in Congress to deal with economy over Trump and Republicans in Congress.

55% of voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to lower the cost of living.

The majority of voters believe Democrats were trying to lower the cost of energy (58%) and reduce government expenditures to reduce inflation (56%) when they were in power.

Voters believe the top three ways to reduce inflation are to end the Trump tariffs (36%), regulate prices and price increases (23%), and reduce government spending (20%).

The majority of voters favor decreasing taxes now (66%; +8 pts., Sept. 2026), decreasing government spending (71%; +7), and decreasing interest rates (64%), including a majority across political parties.

VOTERS SAY PARTIES NEED TO WAIT THEIR TURN TO APPOINT JUSTICES, NOT PACK COURTS

69% of voters say if one party is unhappy with Supreme Court rulings, they should wait until they get to appoint justices instead of packing the court.

52% of voters say judgeship appointments should be kept at the 50-vote threshold instead of increased to 60 votes.

A QUARTER OF VOTERS HAVE USED AN AI CHATBOT TO GATHER INFORMATION ABOUT THE MIDTERMS

25% of voters say they have used an AI chatbot to gather research or information about the midterms (18-24 y.o.: 48%; 25-34 y.o.: 43%).

Information on polling (39%), information on candidates (39%), and information on voting and registration (38%) are the top three queries among those who have used the AI for the midterms.

The plurality of voters say they are unsure of the political leanings of top AI models or believe they are neutral.

A MAJORITY OF VOTERS SEE DOJ AS POLITICALLY-COMPROMISED

64% of voters say the Justice Department is influenced by political considerations rather than investigating politicians fairly and independently, including a majority across political parties.

59% of voters have heard of the federal investigation into Congresswoman Ilhan Omar over allegations of immigration fraud, and 53% say the allegations are credible.

59% of voters support the investigation. 61% say Omar should have her U.S. citizenship revoked if found guilty.

37% of voters, a plurality, view the investigation as mostly politically motivated, while 31% say it is mostly a legitimate effort to uncover fraud. 20% of voters say it is both.

VOTERS ATTRIBUTE UNREST IN EUROPE TO IMMIGRATION, THE ECONOMY, AND INFLATION AND SEE A SIMILAR FATE FOR THE U.S.

64% of voters have heard about the large protests and riots in France this month.

Voters view the unrest in Europe is being driven by high levels of immigration and failed integration (28%), economic problems and government debt (26%), and the rising cost of living (22%)

69% of voters say the protests have become violent.

55% say the violence is mostly from students unhappy with education and the cost of living, while 45% attribute it to ultra-left agitators and other groups.

75% of voters say it is likely the U.S. could face similar unrest.

MAJORITY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISRAEL OVER HAMAS

71% of voters support Israel over Hamas.

75% of voters believe there are terrorist groups on the borders of Israel today, including a majority across political parties and age groups. 42%, a plurality, believe the groups are trying to destroy Israel.

72% of voters say Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of a long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

77% of voters say Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish homeland (+3), including a majority across political parties and age groups.

52% of voters say they would be less likely to vote for a politician who called for the complete destruction of Israel (+4), while 22% say they would be more likely.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE USE OF FORCE SHOULD IRAN REFUSE TO GIVE UP CONTROL OF THE STRAIT

69% of voters say they are following developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict closely (+3). 41%, a plurality, believe the U.S. is winning.

65% of voters say Iranians are not serious in their negotiations and are just working to buy time. The same percentage say Iran is looking more defiant rather than coming closer to a deal, including a majority across political parties.

68% of voters say the U.S. should resume use of force, sanctions, and blockades if Iran does not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, including a majority across political parties.

48% of voters, a plurality, say Trump's handling of the Iran conflict makes them more likely to vote Democrat in the upcoming midterm elections (+7).

58% of voters oppose Trump's handling of the Iran conflict (+5), including 68% of Independents.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE BUT PRIORITIZE LOWERING AMERICAN FUEL PRICES

68% of voters say Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games and stalling with the U.S. and the West (+7), while 61% say Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy genuinely wants to end the war.

36% of voters, a plurality, say neither Russia nor Ukraine has the upper hand.

64% say the Trump administration should continue providing weaponry to Ukraine and impose further sanctions on Russia.

52% of voters say Ukraine needs to make territorial concessions to end the war, 64% say Ukraine should receive direct U.S. security guarantees if it does so (+6).

61% of voters oppose the U.S. buying oil and diesel fuel from Russia while the war continues.

63% say lowering fuel prices for Americans is more important than limiting Russia's ability to fund the war, including a majority across politcal parties.

54% support Trump's deal to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel fuel.

58% of voters oppose Trump's handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (+6), and 46% say it makes them more likely to vote Democrat in the midterms (+7).

The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 24-26, 2026, among 2,700 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies

The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Carrie Hsu
[email protected]

SOURCE: Stagwell

View the original press release on ACCESS Newswire

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The Fort Worth Press - October Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Democrats Hold A 4-Point Lead In Midterms Horserace, With Trump Approval Dropping To 39%

October Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Democrats Hold A 4-Point Lead In Midterms Horserace, With Trump Approval Dropping To 39%

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